Could this landmark agreement end the Cold War era?

Could this landmark agreement end the Cold War era?

By: Rachel Marsden

MOSCOW — There was a noticeable shift here in the last few days. Russians seem … lighter. Like they were just told that vodka hydrates better than water. And I’m not the only one to have noticed. American and Western expats here have picked up on the same vibe, and admit to a similar feeling themselves.

It all started when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met for the first time in Saudi Arabia to take the first steps in normalizing relations between the two nations.

And that’s exactly how the average Russian seems to views it — not so much an Ukraine issue as a much larger reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape, with Ukraine as really just the current center ring for a years-long global boxing tournament between two heavyweight contenders. After all, they figure, the conflict in Ukraine popped off after years of the US and its NATO allies using Ukraine as a pressure valve that can be dialed up or down on Russia right in its own backyard, supporting anti-Russian politicians and movements at least as far back as 20 years with the Orange Revolution, and more recently cozying up to the Russian border with weapons and Western- trained Ukrainian fighters who even alarmed their Canadian military trainers with their Nazi-themed accessorizing, as the Ottawa Citizen reported back in 2021, well before the current conflict went red hot.

Everyone from Russian taxi drivers, to gym bros and baristas have asked me over the past few days whether I think there will finally be peace between the US and Russia. More than a few are hopeful that Trump, as a businessman, might break Washington’s usual routine of trying to cast himself as a main character in yet another remake of a Hollywood Cold War action movie against stereotypical Russian baddies.

And every indication so far is that they’re right to be hopeful. “We agreed to lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine,” Rubio said in a statement following his meeting with Lavrov.

The fact that Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, was involved in the Saudi peace talks as a member of the Russian delegation speaks volumes. When investment bankers start showing up at peace talks, it’s a surefire sign that deals — and not just diplomacy — are on the table.

Trump has just created a similar sovereign wealth fund for the US with an executive order that could feasibly result in a partnership with its $10 billion Russian counterpart on joint projects for mutual profit. And it’s hard to imagine a better way to ensure lasting and stable peace between nations than through mutually profitable joint ventures.

“The United States can leverage such returns to promote fiscal sustainability, lessen the burden of taxes on American families and small businesses, establish long-term economic security, and promote US economic and strategic leadership internationally,” the White House said on February 3, as Trump announced the new fund.

Turns out that the first such project may just be on the table already in the current negotiations, with Dmitriev telling the press in the wake of the initial contacts that there has already been a “general discussion” of “maybe joint projects in the Arctic,” involving energy and natural resources.

There’s also every indication that the Trump administration views Ukraine’s future peace and stability through an economic lens. Although most of the country’s resources are currently in Russian-held territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Feb. 24 that Russia would be “ready to offer” joint development opportunities of rare earth minerals there to its “American partners … if they showed interest in working together.”

Rubio has made it clear that Team Trump views Ukraine’s “security guarantees” as the natural result of an economic partnership for mineral extraction with the US. “We discussed this issue about the mineral rights, and we explained to them, ‘Look, we want to be in joint venture with you, not because we’re trying to steal from your country, but because we think that’s actually a security guarantee’,” Rubio said of Team Zelensky, in an interview with journalist Catherine Herridge posted on social media.

The big question is who exactly would be securing the mineral extraction? Europe, in a seeming effort to wedge itself into some kind of relevance, is reportedly trying to sell Trump on European “peacekeeping forces” in Ukraine — but only if the US military promises air cover to back them up. Because that’s never led to mission creep before, or anything. Libya, anyone? What started as air cover for “humanitarian” reasons there turned into full-blown regime change, chaos and a proxy war with global powers sneaking weapons into the mix.

Europe’s proposal sounds almost exactly like the NATO troop presence in Ukraine that set off the conflict in the first place — just branded as an economic venture instead of “self-defence” training.

About the only thing that makes sense is joint Russian-US security and defense cooperation in the interests of mutual economic benefit — whether in resource projects in Ukraine or in the Arctic. Think of it like sharing a studio apartment with someone: if you’re both financially invested, you’re less likely to start throwing punches over who left dirty dishes in the sink.

If Germany and Japan can become military and economic allies in the wake of the Second World War, then why can’t the Cold War with the former Soviet Union finally end similarly?

Nearly all wars are about money. Trump’s presidency is a rare chance to ditch that excuse and start a new era of cooperation — something that, until a few days ago, felt about as plausible as Moscow and Washington going halfsies on a timeshare.